Saturday, February 14, 2015

Krugman weighs in a bit on Greece...


K is making the point that to increase the primary surplus to levels that which the morons have demanded (at one point), it would take over 6% of cuts to domestic spending to achieve.

K here doing some sectoral balances.  (Good sign.)
as I understand it, it is merely proposing that it be allowed to stabilize the surplus at that level, as opposed to raising it to 4.5 percent of GDP, a number that has few precedents in history.
Now, you might think that 3 percent of GDP is not that big a deal (although try finding $500 billion a year of spending cuts in the United States!) Given the macroeconomics, however, it is much bigger than it looks. Much like the reparations the Allies tried to extract from Germany after World War I — although for somewhat different reasons — forcing Greece to run huge primary surpluses at this point would impose a very large “excess burden” over and above the direct cost of the surpluses themselves.

Or to turn this around, to achieve the extra three points of surplus the troika is demanding, Greece would actually have to find more than 6 points of GDP in spending cuts or tax hikes. And note that the multiplier is almost surely greater than one; this means that the fall in government spending would induce a fall in private spending too, which is an additional excess burden from the austerity. The point, then, is that by demanding that Greece run even bigger primary surpluses, the troika is in effect demanding that Greece make sacrifices on the order of an additional 7.5 or 8 percent of GDP as compared with the standstill the Greek government proposes.
I don't see how Greece can stay in if they ever realize that they are looking at another 8% of GDP in domestic cuts to do so.


17 comments:

Jose Guilherme said...

Great analysis by Krugman.

The EU wants to force on Greece an extra 6 or 7 percent cut of GDP - after having imposed on the country a recession that shrinked output by some 25% or more.

It's obvious that if Greece doesn't refuse this then its future is toast. As for the eurozone - well, it's become a bloodsucker preying on the weakest members. May it RIP as soon as possible.

Tom Hickey said...

At this point it is looking like a game of chicken to see who is going to pull the trigger on a Grexit. The eurocrats are demanding the impossible, while Syriza is saying no way to more austerity. The only option is Grexit. Now it is a question of who takes the blame for initiating it.

Tom Hickey said...

BTW, there is a similar situation in Ukraine. While Russia complaining that NATO is encroaching on its borders, NATO is claiming that Russia is advancing toward it borders. The question now is how the proxy war being fought in Ukraine becomes a war among Great Powers themselves.

Malmo's Ghost said...

Not going to be a Grexit.

....The Russian situation scares the daylights out of me. Supersedes what's going down in Greece by order of magnitude too.

Matt Franko said...

Tom,

just fyi the focus seems to be more on the ME and ISIS ... Yemen falling and now attacks in Copenhagen and northern Iraq on a base where US forces are domiciled...

the "kingdom" being surrounded and domestic attacks....

the "vibe" I am picking up is that the Ukraine situation is more of a "sideshow"...

(FD: I am GOPer...)

rsp,

Malmo's Ghost said...

Matt,

You're wrong.

Tom Hickey said...

The US no difficulty in fighting on many fronts — as long as it doesn't have to actually commit troops or lose any if it does.

The Ukraine things is now well past being a sideshow. The US is trying to take down the Putin regime and Putin is trying to break up European solidarity with an eye to eventually breaking up NATO.

This is a fight to the death, and it is just a question of timing. Ultimately it is the US against China, which is not lost on the Chinese leadership. Neither Russia nor China would prefer to have this fight just yet, which is why the US is pursuing it while it still has the upper hand militarily and sees the gap closing.

Same in the EZ economically. This a make or break time for the neoliberal agenda on which the EMU was founded.

Either neoliberalism is going to prevail globally — or not. The outcome doesn't look like its going to be arrived at peacefully or as smoothly as the neoliberals and neocons had planned.

we may be approaching crunch time in the Great Game, against the background of which ISIS is a blip. The US is pretty confident that with Israel it can dominate MENA indefinitely, and messiness is accepted, even quite a bit of it.

No Islamic power is a match for the US and Israel, but Russia and China are a match for NATO and the Pacific Allies of the US. The US is apparently intent on having this out while it still thinks in can win.

Malmo's Ghost said...

What Tom said.

Peter Pan said...

Fight to the death for whom?
No military victory can be had against Russia or China. And it looks like the Ukrainian regime will eventually collapse. The US will have it's propaganda coup and a new Cold War, and little else.

Tom Hickey said...

It's an eventual fight for global hegemony or, better, the US preserving its global hegemony. While it is US hegemony, it reality is the hegemony of the American Empire with its center in the US and allies (vassal states) around the world. The opposition is the emerging power that will eventually eclipse the American Empire owing to the their sheer size — Russia with this Eurasian land mass and natural resources, and the billion plus populations of China and India. Unless the American Empire can absorb them, too, and that doesn't seem to be their intention.

Obviously, the special danger is a Russian-Chinese alliance that would dominate the Eurasian land mass and littoral area surrounding it based on a Silk Road that is both overland by high speed rail and also maritime. China has already bought a chunk of the Greece port of Piraeus, for instance, and wants to buy more of it. The US cannot let this happen and remain dominant globally.

Russia, China and India say they want a multipolar world but the US don't believe them, since history is about achieving and maintaining dominance. Moreover, as far the US is concerned there cannot be a multipolar world order under neoliberalism since neoliberalism is based on competition and someone is going to come out on top.

Given the numbers, it is not going to be the US for much longer. But the thinking has been that this is several decades away, so the US not likely to move aggressively yet. That may be the case but US strategy is making it unclear. The US is at least setting up now with the ramping up of NATO on Russia's Western border and the pivot to Asia on China's Eastern border. The US is also making overtures to India, which has been having border wars with China.

Roger Erickson said...

Krugman weighs like a boat anchor around the neck of US culture ... until he sticks his neck out as far as Mosler and/or Chomsky.

So far, Krugman's effort is still primarily in his own self-glorification.

NeilW said...

What again is irritating is that he talk in percentage points.

Forced repatriations via import suppression is damaging to producers in other EU nations simply so that rents can be extracted by people that should have spent the money in Greece rather than lent it in the first place.

This is very much about rule by creditor now.

What's a little disappointing is that the Greek financial guys haven't pointed out how this approach hits real exporters in other EU nations.

If they pointed out that high quality cheap Greek holidays in the islands are being suppressed by the belligerent attitude of the Germans they might get some traction.

Once again nobody is putting this in real terms.

Roger Erickson said...

Neil,
I'm reminded of a personal comment to me from a German years back, decrying the looser retails hours in the USA vs Germany ...

his scathing comment was that better services made people "weak" & undisciplined

Seriously.

You have to have lived in Germany to fully understand that still-extant German characteristic ... which is changing, but not fast enough.

So far, they're still a generation behind other cultures on the angst & self-flagellation curve
(which rebounds as an effect on their neighbors).

Matt Franko said...

Mal I'm just saying that seems to be the view from the US political right.... nobody is talking about Ukraine on the right imo.... or Greece...

They are probably thinking "commies fighting among themselves and European socialism is finally collapsing. ... good.... "

All the 'chatter' on the right seems to be on Islamic terrorism and ISIS...

Rsp

Tom Hickey said...

It's the beheading, Matt. Without that ISIS wouldn't even be a blip on the news screen in a world of infotainment where sensationalism prevails in order to maximize ratings watched by advertisers.

Detroit Dan said...

Good commments, Tom. Thank you.

Paul Glover said...

Whether or not Greece stays in the eurozone, they'll need a national system of regional currencies backed by local directories of goods and services. These will jump start new businesses and new markets. "Hometown Money" explains how: http://www.paulglover.org/currencybook.html