Monday, February 9, 2015

Stephen M. Walt — Why Arming Kiev Is a Really, Really Bad Idea

Washington pundits are jumping on a proposal to send weapons to Ukraine. Here's why they all need to take a deep breath.…
Most importantly, Ukraine’s fate is much more important to Moscow than it is to us, which means that Putin and Russia will be willing to pay a bigger price to achieve their aims than we will. The balance of resolve as well as the local balance of power strongly favors Moscow in this conflict. Before starting down an escalatory path, therefore, Americans should ask themselves just how far they are willing to go. If Moscow has more options, is willing to endure more pain, and run more risks than we are, then it makes no sense to begin a competition in resolve we are unlikely to win. And no, that doesn’t show the West is irresolute, craven, or spineless; it simply means Ukraine is a vital strategic interest for Russia but not for us.…
And let’s not forget the broader costs of this feckless policy. We are pushing Russia closer to China, which is not in the long-term U.S. interest….
The solution to this crisis is for the United States and its allies to abandon the dangerous and unnecessary goal of endless NATO expansion and do whatever it takes to convince Russia that we want Ukraine to be a neutral buffer state in perpetuity. We should then work with Russia, the EU, and the IMF to develop an economic program that puts that unfortunate country back on its feet.…
Foreign Policy
Why Arming Kiev Is a Really, Really Bad Idea
Stephen M. Walt | Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Relations at Harvard University

1 comment:

Ryan Harris said...

Merkel's EU wasn't a signatory to the Budapest agreement which specifically prohibits using economic ties as political leverage over Ukraine. I think those EU activities were the final straw that caused Putler to take back Crimea.