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There's no magic in prediction markets as predictors, and prediction markets are influence by polls. But prediction markets are an input and do contain information. It's interesting how this prediction market differs from the polling at this point. They should start to converge.
However, it's way to early to tell much at this point. Many if not most likely voters haven't really begun to pay attention yet.
What the prediction market is saying about Rubio seems to be borne out by his fundraising capability wrt deep pockets.
I think that both Rubio and Cruz and to some extent Rand Paul are setting themselves up for future elections, These guys are likely going to be around for a while and not winning the nomination this time around is not going to negatively impact their chances in the future.
I had thought Democrats were unwilling to commit electoral suicide by going with Clinton, but given how they've abandoned the notion of winning elections for governorships, state legislatures and Congress I should not have expected this. Get ready for a proto-fascistic President Trump.
It's really incredible how badly Bernie Sanders is doing. The left cries for a true, progressive liberal and when they get one what do they do? Marginalize and shun him. The left sucks.
And Marco Rubio as president? The very thought makes me want to vomit.
Not sure that HRC wouldn't be as fascistic as Trump. Unless terrorism declines, the West is going to react by becoming much more authoritarian and militaristic.
Right now, Trump is just reading the tea leaves, which is he is much better at then the other candidates.
Sooner of later, the US is likely to be hit, maybe hard. That will change everything.
I agree somewhat Carlos, but probably not these elections in US. If you look at It, It seems the only likely candidate to bring some change. Left liberals have been brainwashed with postmodernism, they can say end austerity and continue with very harsh austerity (Syriza and the Varoufakis camp in Greece, socialists in Spain etc). It is madness IMO what's going on in politics nowadays. In very many respects there is no point of voting, the outcome is going to be the same any way. It is the maintstream left who hates progressive politics the most. But hey, they sell, Varoufakis is the hero for the clueless left.
10 comments:
Get recked... Third world war and more neoliberalism, the future looking bright!
Come on, Tom...
REUTERS 5 DAY ROLLING POLL:
TRUMP: 38.8%...
CARSON: 14.7%...
RUBIO: 10.3%...
CRUZ: 7.1%... MORE...
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151115-20151120/type/day
Just sayin' where the money is.
A lot of people bet on the Mets....
Here's s study on it.
Markets vs. Polls as Predictors: :An Historical Assessment of US Presidential Elections
Robert S. Erikson Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien Temple University
There's no magic in prediction markets as predictors, and prediction markets are influence by polls. But prediction markets are an input and do contain information. It's interesting how this prediction market differs from the polling at this point. They should start to converge.
However, it's way to early to tell much at this point. Many if not most likely voters haven't really begun to pay attention yet.
What the prediction market is saying about Rubio seems to be borne out by his fundraising capability wrt deep pockets.
I think that both Rubio and Cruz and to some extent Rand Paul are setting themselves up for future elections, These guys are likely going to be around for a while and not winning the nomination this time around is not going to negatively impact their chances in the future.
I had thought Democrats were unwilling to commit electoral suicide by going with Clinton, but given how they've abandoned the notion of winning elections for governorships, state legislatures and Congress I should not have expected this. Get ready for a proto-fascistic President Trump.
Hillary's the next president.
It's really incredible how badly Bernie Sanders is doing. The left cries for a true, progressive liberal and when they get one what do they do? Marginalize and shun him. The left sucks.
And Marco Rubio as president? The very thought makes me want to vomit.
Not sure that HRC wouldn't be as fascistic as Trump. Unless terrorism declines, the West is going to react by becoming much more authoritarian and militaristic.
Right now, Trump is just reading the tea leaves, which is he is much better at then the other candidates.
Sooner of later, the US is likely to be hit, maybe hard. That will change everything.
I'm thinking there's room in the race for a strong, right wing, social conservative who is willing to stand up to globalisation and corporate power.
Kind of like Hitler but without some of his baggage.
I agree somewhat Carlos, but probably not these elections in US. If you look at It, It seems the only likely candidate to bring some change. Left liberals have been brainwashed with postmodernism, they can say end austerity and continue with very harsh austerity (Syriza and the Varoufakis camp in Greece, socialists in Spain etc). It is madness IMO what's going on in politics nowadays. In very many respects there is no point of voting, the outcome is going to be the same any way. It is the maintstream left who hates progressive politics the most. But hey, they sell, Varoufakis is the hero for the clueless left.
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