The research from the University of Iowa is based on previous studies indicating that people are particularly likely to stick to their original viewpoint when they’ve had to write their beliefs down– a phenomenon known as the ‘explanation effect’, which also affects future actions.Hypo-rationality?
In the study, Tom Gruca, a professor of marketing at the Tippie College of Business, tried to find evidence of something called ‘confirmation bias’ – the tendency to give preference to existing information or beliefs, rather than considering alternative possibilities. He says equity analysts working on financial markets are particularly prone to this bias, with those who issue written forecasts being especially vulnerable to falling into the trap, despite having access to new data to influence them.…
According to Gruca, “This study shows that when all traders in a market have the same bias — in this case, confirmation bias — market prices are not efficient and do not reflect all of the information available.
“However, if some traders are not biased, then market prices efficiently reflect new, relevant information,” Gruca writes.RT
People unlikely to change their mind, even when facts contradict their views - study
5 comments:
LOL. I'm skeptical of this, as this phenomena doesn't apply to me in the least.
Right, I am absolutely positive of that myself. :)
Seriously I have moved from one side to the other many times over the years on issues religious and political and even philosophical that I'd have sworn I was embedded to ideologically. I tend to be very liberal on most issues, but I do deviate on several areas that are considered axiomatic to liberals. I know you think I'm a rightest toady of late but you couldn't be further from the truth. My mother, who raised me as a single mother when it wasn't in vogue, was a past president of the Toledo Ohio NOW chapter. I, even as a youth, greeted George McGovern with my mother at Toledo Airport when he was running for President in 72. I do, however, reject many of the latest incantation of so called liberals. It probably emanates from the anarchist, Bob Black's, influence :)
"I do, however, reject many of the latest incantation of so called liberals."
It was the scientific method that eventually defeated alchemy. But that's because it was new at the time.
Using the scientific method on population specific issues is difficult. Which is why diet and economics have a lot in common - based largely on superstition, bias and propaganda rather than science - because it is near impossible to design appropriate experiments involving people.
After all the difference between a donut and a lettuce leaf is pretty obvious.
Interesting. Putting an opinion on paper must make it difficult to be objective when viewing changes in prices. I've always wondered why few analysts make good traders when they are usually closest to the timely emerging data. Combine this article with the one further up the blog about people applying false narratives to events and together the articles are more interesting than apart.
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